When the Federal Reserve was forced to underwrite the Bear Stearns rescue, it seemed the "credit crunch" was really a recession. But that was last week. And things move fast in the City and on Wall street. Both now have a new, cheerful, message for us.

If you want to believe it, that is...

So the huge losses on the subprime market - we'd been told they would be on a scale without any precedent - aren't going to happen and they got their sums wrong?

Er... yes. The Bank of England thinks the financial institutions responsible for this mess have got it wrong and their gloomy forecasts are exaggerated. To the tune of 100%, apparently.

But hey! Anyone can make a mistake.

The losses attributable to selling mortgages to people who can't pay them off were put at $400bn. But - hey presto! - those properties are now thought to be worth around $200bn (bricks and mortar, eh? You can't beat 'em) - hence the 100% overstate, according to the Bank.

So the future is clear. You raise the $200bn and buy the lot, then sit on them for a few years until they rise in price and you make a killing. Easy peasey. What was everyone so worried about?

In the meantime; what about the price of petrol at £5 a gallon? And the talk of the "credit crunch" that has Mr and Mrs Joe Average wearing their tin hats for the forseeable future?

They are obviously very silly to have believed all those experts in the City and on Wall Street. So they'll be out buying our boats, hiring marina berths and spending loads on chandlery products this summer?

Now that's something I really want to believe in.