Under this apparently cloudless financial sky, the brave new world of the first ExCeL Schroders London Boat Show (SLBS) lured the curious and the serious alike to Docklands in their droves - all 213,801 of them.

And even though many exhibitors conceded that their costs were around 30% higher than at Earls Court, cash tills rang and ink dried on contracts. So books balanced and all seemed well.

But by the time ExCeL opened its doors on 2005, the climate had changed. Interest rates had risen; house prices had begun falling; Christmas trade in the high street had been the worst for years. And, perhaps most worryingly of all, mortgage equity withdrawal looked likely to fall.

As I breezed into eerily empty halls on the first Thursday, I wondered what was in store.

David de Vere of Bates Wharf set the tone with first hand experience of selling US and European imports, both power and sail. He said that 2004 had exceeded all expectations for US built Maxum sportsboats.

"They had planned 150 for the UK, " he told me. "The final tally was 330."

Thanks to the weakening dollar, these boats now cost about 16% less in sterling terms than two years ago. The elegant new "retro styled" Chris Craft speed boats also looked good value for money.

"We'll see" he commented.

A week later, De Vere enthused: "Amazing. I've already sold six Chris Craft from cold.

Bound to be more to come." The weak dollar was clearly doing its job for Dubya's drive to reduce the US trade deficit.

On the Italian built Sessa front, however, De Vere's attitude was less upbeat than last year. "We can still compete at 1.45 euros to the pound, " he said. But the euro was bouncing around the 1.42 mark as he said this? As a Beneteau dealer, De Vere said the recent euro strength was less problematic because Beneteau sell to UK dealers in sterling. But there must be a limit to how much of a currency hit even the mighty Beneteau can take. "Prices have gone up a bit, " he conceded, admitting that his sales were not as strong as last year.

De Vere was less concerned than most by escalating ExCeL stand costs because Sessa pay 100%, as do Beneteau. Each Beneteau dealer contributes £2000 towards stand costs, he said.

No doubt other big overseas manufacturers are equally supportive, while competing and smaller UK based manufacturers and their dealers take the full hit.

Simon Limb of Beneteau dealers Sunbird agreed that buying in sterling made life easier. He seemed surprised that Beneteau price increases had not been bigger for the 2005 season. But maybe this has something to do with the escalating Franco- Bavaria battle.

The new Beneteau Cyclades range was introduced as a "low cost - low option" competitor to the Bavarias in an effort to halt the German giant's incursions into the charter market.

Holding up Peter Dickie - Beneteau's Dealer of the Year worldwide in 2004 - claimed his sales at the show were holding up. "We have been selling two power to one sail so far, " he said. This proves the wisdom of Dickie's gamble many years ago when taking on sole distributorship for Beneteau's embryonic motor boat range when it first started up with a few eccentric and decidedly un-British looking little leisure fishing boats.

Now Beneteau's motor range encompasses flybridge cruisers and powerful trawler yachts up to around the 40ft bracket as well as a multitude of runabouts, leisure fishing boats and sports cruisers. Last laugh with Dickie.

In the vanguard of the UK's world beating motor yacht "big four", David King of Princess Yachts was relaxed about the $ problem because they had covered this well ahead in forward dealing. And the strengthening euro had helped Euroland sales.

The number of Russian buyers was also swelling - although they tended to go for the biggest in the range.

By the time the second Thursday came round, Marine Secol's MD John Rubethon said that Princess was catching up fast after the first four nondays and orders were coming in. He also said that the first of the new mega-Princesses currently being developed to take over "top of the range slot" from the 25 metre had already been ordered by the Turkish owner of a Princess 25 metre. Who says brand loyalty doesn't pay? And the Chinese market was beginning to come on stream through Princess' Shanghai dealer, proving the old adage that as one market becomes stickier, so another one opens up. Provided you keep your eyes open.

John Channon, ex of Hoods and now of Channon Sails, was the first to elucidate on the other side of the Chinese coin.

Like many others, he gets sails made in China. "It has been a great success, " he said.

He also commented that clothing giants such as Musto, Henri-Lloyd, Gill etc had garments made in Chinese factories.

David Lewin of Compass later confirmed this in a roundabout way, saying it was in fact two Chinese factories - not just one - that churned out many major clothing brands;

including Compass' own.

Looking back at his earlier days in the marine trade, he said of the Chinese phenomenon:

"One of the last major UK firms to manufacture marine clothing in the UK was Splashdown. Now they have gone to China as well.

The quality of the old UK made Splashdown clothing was better.

But at around half the price, our Chinese made gear gives the customer great value for money."

And the currency situation helps, he added. "Everything we buy from China is sold to us in dollars."

I asked him if losses caused by the strengthening euro even out gains from the weakening dollar on the stuff he buys in euros and sells in sterling.

Inscrutable smile "The gains we are making from the weakening $ are bigger, " he said with an inscrutable smile.

One can only assume that other major players who subcontract to China, such as Musto and Henri-Lloyd, are smiling equally broadly.

The weak $ was also helping Seasure as much as it was hurting the company. "We export a lot of Lavac marine toilets to the USA, but the weak dollar has cut into sales there, " said Mark Acaster.

Then he pointed to the Seasure-branded folding bicycles at the front of the stand.

"But we get these from China, " he said. "Last year we bought them by the 20ft container. Our next shipment will fill a 40ft container. They sell through our dealers."

They sell a lot, I ventured?

"Yes. And we buy them from China in $. We have an office sweepstake to guess the $ price the next time round."

Another inscrutable smile.

Other equipment makers admitted to the same doubleedged currency dilemma. Andy Ash-Vie of Harken UK was winning hands down on $ priced US made Harken gear - but losing out on Harken winches manufactured in Italy and sold in euros.

His comments about the first Thursday, when the visitors didn't - and the exhibitors were forced to man their stands until 21.00 - were unprintable. He was by no means alone.

UK manufacturers Spinlock were selling hardware and their new lifejackets and safety harnesses well into Europe - partly thanks to sterling's slide against the euro - but faced a struggle in the bigger US export market because of sterling's strength against the dollar.

Wherever you looked, there were $ swings and euro roundabouts. All the fun of a currency fairground - a fairground that needs ever closer watching to avoid catching a currency cold.

The MacGregor 26 trailer sailer is another $-based product from the USA. Richard Hallowes works for the US parent company from his base in Cornwall. His ExCeL exhibit boasted a big sign offering a £2,000 discount - more than 10% off. "It's only during the show. The US builders are able to make a big sterling discount because they are winning on the $." Any doubt that the discount worked was removed when Hallowes suddenly thrust a phone in my face. "You speak French don't you? Can you talk to this guy?" It was a French buyer asking if the discount offer could be extended for a few days after the show because he could not get over to the UK for a fortnight. The weak $ was definitely helping importers.

Kenneth Beken's family firm had come to every boat show bar one. He was frank - and not happy. Like all retailers, Beken want footfall. More visitors mean more business - which has to balance against the costs.

"This show has been bad.

ExCeL is at the mercy of a few key access routes like the M25, DLR and Jubilee line. The Dartford crossings on the M25 were shut on the first Saturday and the Jubilee Line was disrupted by maintenance work on both weekends, " he said, adding: "and the hotel we stay at has just said the rate for a twin room will increase from £99 now to £129 next year - and they want payment in full a month in advance!"

One wonders if businesses hanging onto ExCeL's coat tails are about to make a big mistake by confusing marine traders with golden egg geese.

Geese can fly away.

Cautiously hopeful Like most sailboat builders, Stephen Cutsforth, CEO at Luhrs Marine's UK yacht manufacturing base in Portland Harbour, was cautiously hopeful rather than euphoric. "The last three years have been overheated, " he said. "The bubble may have burst".

He said that the annual Legend production capacity at Portland was now up to 200 yachts, and that Legend's move into the bilge keel market was paying dividends.

With Westerly now out of the picture and Moody building nothing smaller than a 46ft fin keeler, Cutsforth's only major UK competition in the bilge keel market comes from Hunter Boats of the Select Yacht Group.

As the euro strengthens against sterling he also sees increased opportunities to export bilge keel Legends to the tidal waters of France's western coastline.

Barrie Stillwell of Opal Marine - distributor of Legends as well as Bavarias and US-built Island Packet cruisers in the UK - was equally cautious.

Visitor numbers over the first four days of the show were a disaster. "We were worried, " he told me.

Since then we have been catching up, he said and sales over the second four days were up on last year."

How do you see things overall compared with 2004, I asked? "It's unlikely that we will make up for the first four days, " he reckoned, but he claimed that Fairline sales made by parent company B A Peters were satisfactory and on a par with 2004.

But still no one was claiming dramatic increases in boat sales - no matter what show tactics they were adopting. Not even Opal. And all agreed that it was very hard work.

Opal Marine has got boat show selling down to a fine art and has become a benchmark for the industry. The stand is awash with salesmen, and the show prices and offers are carefully calculated and highly visible.

The biggest "free offers" come with a non-returnable £1000 deposit. Smaller - but still attractive - discounts come with returnable £250 holding deposits.

The Island Packets - which are imported from the USA and have therefore benefited from recent $ falls - were offered with even bigger "free offers".

More sense "This makes more sense than reducing the price of the boat, " a salesman told me. Either way, Opal presents its wares boldly and is not afraid to ask for the business. And they need to - considering a rumoured stand cost of around £350,000.

Further along the serried ranks of mastless (giving a sad and unfinished look to the North Hall) sailboats, Moody exhibited large, elegant and pricey UK-built Moody cruisers alongside smaller and less pricey Slovenian built Elan cruiser-racers.

Prices were plastered on the Elan bows, but not on Moody's.

"If you need to ask the price, you can't afford it"?

The new Moody built by VT was doing well. "We sold two just before the show, and so far another two to Italy during it, " said John Moody. "And we have sold seven Elans."

When I commented that this sounded rather good with three days still to go, I was told that ExCeL 2004 had been poor and 2005 did not look like being any better. Ever increasing sales are needed to cover ever increasing ExCeL costs.

On the dinghy front, Laser's Adrian Hart agreed that footfall was well down but by the second Thursday, sales figures were only slightly behind 2004.

He was not the only exhibitor to ask "Where have the busloads of keen club sailors gone?"

But he was reassured at getting over 100 "data captures" in a day. These were people who wanted to be kept in the information loop even though they were not in the mood to deal on the day. Maybe "data captures" were the name of the 2005 ExCeL game.

What does it all mean? With the exception of a few niche market specialists, it was difficult to find exhibitors claiming better show orders than last year. But I never managed to talk to Sunseeker.

The first days were so poorly attended that it seemed more like a trade show. Indeed one IPC ad salesman expressed delight at being able to corner all his trade clients in two days flat. But new subscriptions to the magazine were, he conceded, down on targets.

The organisers have been reluctant to broadcast numbers through the turnstiles, preferring to stress the quality of visitors and the rising profile of the show. And who can blame them? The current NBS team did not invent the ExCeL adventure.

They inherited it. And - with splendid sponsor assistance - they set it alight in 2004.

But the bumper 213,801 attendance at the first ExCeL was always likely to be an artificially high result. Crystal ball gazers - sorry, marketing teams - were always going to have to take a view on the likely volume of repeat business.

Whether the 2005 gate was down 25% or as much as 35%, a view must now be taken on what represents the future norm. Even 25% down means around 50,000 people at an average discounted ticket price of say £9 - equating to a revenue loss of around £450,000. But it could be worse.

Exhibitors would not stomach an increase in stand costs to cover this, especially after a middling show in an increasingly squally economic climate. Many already complain about increased side costs such as hotels, meals, etc.

Exhibitors would also resist any idea of increasing gate prices - especially after the 2005 hike from £12 to £14. Even boat shows could price themselves out of the market.

So if 160,000 becomes an realistic minimum target, savings need to be made. I met one committee member who questioned whether such a huge marketing spend was necessary when much of it was preaching to the converted.

I met another industry luminary who claimed to have heard a rumour of a ruse to reduce the set up period by one day and the show by two days - saving a rumoured £100,000 per day.

And I met exhibitors who wondered whether they dared just give it a miss.