As this is the third London Boat show (LBS) to run at ExCeL - please note the spelling with a capital E, little x, capital C, little e and a capital L - we should see some kind of pattern developing that will give us a clue to what we can expect from future ExCeL boat shows.

The trend at Earls Court was, says organising company and British Marine Federation (BMF) subsidiary National Boat Shows (NBS), on a downward spiral, with the last show in 2003 bringing in an audited 145,845 people.

The first show at ExCeL brought an astonishing 213,801 people in and cost BB a case of champagne after we bet NBS it wouldn't get more than 200,000 people through the turnstiles.

We were only to pleased to go to Egham and present the bottles of bubbly to NBS managing director Paul Streeter and the boat show team.

But last year didn't see anything like the same figures.

After targeting 170,000, the final audited number was 154,041. That equates to just 124,606 paying guests.

Among the reasons cited for the drop in attendance were the fire close to the M25 that closed one bore of the Dartford Tunnel on the first weekend, to maintenance works on the Jubilee Line.

But whatever the 2006 visitor total, James Gower, marketing director for the BMF, assured me it would be better than if the show had stayed at Earls Court. The attendance extrapolation for the 2006 show, said Gower, showed just 125,000 people would bother to go to Earls Court; WOW factor or not.

Paul Streeter told me a few months ago that he was targeting 170,000 again for the 2006 show, but this figure was amended downwards at the last BMF Council meeting to 142,000 - that's 102,000 paying guests and 40,000 NPGs; trade and complimentaries, etc.

I'm told the reduction was due to "the downturn in consumer confidence and/or circumstances beyond our control, like a bomb threat or, bad weather".

"We didn't quite meet our target for Southampton, " Streeter told me recently. "We wanted more, obviously, with the nice weather, but I think it's prudent at the moment, with show attendances declining, to realign the targets."

Downgrading Streeter told me the "downgrading" in the target was "in order to realign the budgets", because setting the marketing budget to a 170,000 target would be unrealistic. "So that's the budget, " he explained, "it's not the target."

He added he would "obviously want to get to the 170,000, but are we being realistic at the moment?"

The point about the budgeting springs sharply into focus when other elements are added - or subtracted. Such as the reduction in funding from ExCeL itself.

Part of the deal with ExCeL saw a three-year deal on funding the promotional programme for the show. The overall total was £750,000, reducing over the three years:

this year's show sees the last of the money with ExCeL putting £125,000 into the marketing pot.

Another reduction in funding stems from the lack of a title sponsor. This reduces the sponsorship income by some £300,000, which obviously has a knock-on effect on the marketing budget.

NBS has tried hard to get a title sponsor but, as Streeter says, "it's tough out there."

"James (Gower - BMF marketing director) got really close with a few companies, " he said, "and there is interest out there, but not for this year."

So we'll be working hard at this show for next year, he added.

But there is a new media partner in The Daily Mail, which brings in funds and, hopefully, some 20,000 people through the turnstiles.

According to Gower, the marketing spend on the 2006 show looks like this:

Paid-for media, including enthusiast press, national press, radio, outdoor, online, international online and trade - £500,000.

Investment in ITV1 coverage (production of boat show special) - £100,000.

NBS database activity - over 200,000 records, traditional postage and electronic contact - £100,000.

Creative and PR Agencies - £100,000.

Promotions - £100,000.

Production - £100,000.

ExCeL media investment - £125,000.

That all adds up to £1.125m.

Gower says the partnership with The Daily Mail has been independently valued at £1m, but added: "there are various parties that are benefiting from that value and we are one of four. The direct value attributable to the show was one third."

About one third That £1m in value includes a supplement, TV and radio advertising, promotions and on-line marketing. And if the boat show gets about a third of that, let's say it's worth £330,000.

So it looks like the boat show marketing budget this time is around £1.4m. That's a reduction in the £2m spend quoted to me for the first two ExCeL shows. But it's still a very healthy budget, which means a lot will depend on the creative approach taken this time.

I've not seen what the various agencies have come up with, but I like the strapline of "Your passion is our business".

Nice.

But this year will be, for many, the real test of ExCeL and the London Boat show.

Streeter agrees, saying: "We always said the challenge would be 2005 and 2006."

And while I've been - and remain - harsh on NBS and those in charge of the presentation of the London Boat Show, I have to hark back to the comments I made about ExCeL when it was first punted as the alternative to Earls Court.

So let's get one thing very clear. NBS has a 10-year contract with ExCeL and that's where the London Boat Show will be held until 2013.

So yearning for the London Boat Show in its current form to go back to Earls Court is a no-brainer. It ain't going to happen.

Next, I said a major problem with ExCeL is that those choosing to go by car rely on the M25. I live close to the M25:

if I have to use it, I prefer to use my motorbike.

Because there's rarely a day that the M25 does not see an accident that causes traffic queues for bloody miles.

That's, of course, if they don't close the entire thing anyway.

In short - please tell visitors to use public transport to get to ExCeL. It takes the same time to get from Southampton Parkway to ExCeL as it did to Earls Court.

A major fault with ExCeL has always been it's miles from anywhere. Leave the show and you don't just walk down the road and find hotels galore and a nice little Italian restaurant for the evening.

Nothing there Just over the road to the north of ExCeL is still a housing estate. There's nothing there.

East of ExCeL is London City Airport. And Beckton. Apologies to Beckton, but I'm sure they will also agree there's nothing there either.

West of ExCeL is Canary Wharf - the closest place for a reasonable night out - and the rest of London.

South of ExCeL is Silvertown: not exactly what the estate agents would describe as "des res". Go south of the River Thames and you're talking Greenwich and Blackheath: both excellent places with hotels and restaurants galore.

There are now more hotels on the ExCeL site than last year, but the prices are increasing, although I hear a new cheap 'n cheerful hotel has just opened by London City Airport for around £40 a night - check with the NBS preferred booking agency, First Option - 0870 8709146.

And there are a few more restaurants on the ExCeL site.

But if you're out for a night with The Boys/Girls, or with clients, it's either Canary Wharf, or Butlers Wharf, down on the south bank of the Thames just east of Tower Bridge. Or Brick Lane for a curry. Or Hoxton Square for the hip, kewl and trendy among us.

And that means you have to travel for a night out. OK, the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) is a cheap and quick way to get to Canary Wharf (change at Canning Town), but you'll probably prefer to grab a cab late at night to get you back to the ExCeL area. Last year that was £15 - £20. And most of the cabs operating in the area seem to be unlicensed. This means a) you can probably barter for the fare, and b) if he has an accident, you're probable not covered? The only easy way to Butler's Wharf is by cab, I'm afraid. Or a bit of a trek on the Circle Line to Tower Hill and a long walk over Tower Bridge.

Brick Lane and Hoxton are both cab rides.

Once inside, ExCeL is a great exhibition venue. But, as BB has always pointed out, the surrounding area leaves a lot to be desired. And it will take a long time for London to grow out far enough to see ExCeL in a similar position to Earls Court; ie, with lots of hotels and restaurants close by.

Having said all that, I've taken a cab from ExCeL (late at night) and got to Waterloo in under 20 minutes, so central London really isn't that far away.

Just don't expect everything to be on the doorstep, like it was at Earls Court.

Back to the London Boat Show.

Fleshing out what I've mentioned earlier, The Daily Mail reckons to reach an audience of 3.2m, so NBS hopes to get 20,000 of those into ExCeL after an extensive joint promotional campaign across TV, radio, print, exhibitions and online media, as mentioned above.

This is set to run throughout November, December and January, culminating in what they reckon is the biggest ever reader promotion in association with the show.

And a dedicated London Boat Show supplement will be published on Thursday January 5, in addition to further support from Classic FM.

Media campaign The London Boat Show 2006 media campaign targets boating enthusiasts through direct mail and a series of "carefully tailored campaigns" in the sailing, motorboat, inland waterways, windsurfing, wakeboarding and canoeing specialist press.

Television coverage North One TV will be making a one-hour TV special on the London Boat Show 2006 for ITV1, which will be shown at 14.00 on Sunday January 8.

The programme will come from an onsite studio - on the Sealine stand - where live interviews will take place in a similar style to Top Gear, mixed with a selection of pre-recorded boating-related features. The Top Gear influence continues with the use of one of the programme's excellent presenters, James May.

Seminar programme A new initiative by NBS sees it joining forces with IPC Media to host a series of seminars in the central boulevard area.

The BMF and NBS are also supporting the IPC Marine Awards taking place on the evening of January 6.

Waterside Property Exhibition A Waterside Property Exhibition will be held for the first time in the East Hall from January 6-8, where property experts will be on hand to advise visitors on aspects of waterside living.

Fishing exhibition Like it or lump it, one of the figures coming out of NBS audience research is 60%.

That's 60% of visitors want to see more in the show about fishing. And, as fishing the UK's most popular participant pasttimes, we'd better take notice of that. As NBS has done.

So you'll find that also taking place in the East Hall is a brand new fishing exhibition, running from January 12-15.

Watersports arena The East Hall's 3,000 seat Watersports Arena will host the National Canoe Polo Championships (January 6-8), the Open Indoor Wakeboarding Championships (January 9-12) and the London leg of the Professional Windsurfer's Association Tour (January 12-15).

Visitors will also be able to get out on the water and try their hand at sailing, canoeing and windsurfing - all in the safety of the indoor pool.

Inland Waterways The Waterscape.com Inland Waterways attraction is supported by the BMF, British Waterways and the Environment Agency. The feature is in the north east corner of the show and has life-size jetties and a real-ale English country pub.

The Guinness Bar The Guinness Bar remains in the same place as last year - in the worth west corner of the show against an outside wall so they can pump the dark brown liquid straight through the wall. And a long way from the Sealine stand.

The Exhibitor Party NBS's official bar and restaurant sponsor, Exhibar, is running the Exhibitor Party in the Fox @ ExCeL on Monday January 9 from 19.00.

Exhibitors are invited to let their hair down - it says here - and unwind in what is set to be a night to remember, with great live entertainment.