Sunday 12 October 08 - 00:03
 

Comment

Tighten your seat belts

The International Monetary Fund reckons the USofA will enter a ‘mild depression’ this year. And recovery may take two years.

In the light of West Marine’s recent figures, plus workers being laid off and factories closing, the ‘R’ word is now firmly on the lips of the US leisure marine industry, even if it’s not on the lips of the IMF.

And it seems UK banks decided to get in on the US sub-prime action and bought some debts as an investment. The tune quoted is around £20bn, 3% of GDP. Even the US banks are only in for 1.4% of US GDP.

So Alistair Darling’s assurance of 3% growth and a bright future begin to look a touch wide of the mark. Dubya is throwing money at US citizens in an attempt to stave off the worst. Will the government and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) follow the same route over here? Probably not.

Gordon Brown may quietly and apologetically wonder if the MPC – due to sit the day after this is written – might, perhaps, take a step forward from its current cautious policy towards rate cuts and just offer maybe a ¼% cut to encourage the economy. Half a point may be too much to hope for.

Most economists feel rate cuts are inevitable if the UK is to avoid the dreaded ‘R’. So let’s hope the MPC feels the same way. Because the signs are not very good right now.

I see house mortgage approvals plummeted in 2007 and continue to do the same this year. I hear house prices are – according to unidentified experts – 30% overvalued. I hear of high stock levels around the industry. I understand every deal put to the marine finance houses now comes under intense scrutiny. As a result, what might have been a marginal deal is now a no deal.

Then again, NEC exhibitors say they had a great show. Palmer Johnson has just announced it’s to hire 800 workers to build boats at new facilities on the Hythe and Woolston sites. We live in confusing times.

As Bette Davis once said: ‘Tighten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night’.

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